Research

What we've tested, and what we're testing

Every answer on IntelOpus rests on a connection we've tested on decades of official data. Questions are fixed before we look at the answer, and every result stays on record, including the ones that didn't hold.

Tested connections

Connections we've tested

Each one held up on decades of official data

Weather → harvestsEl NiñoIndia's rice harvestTested on past data

Weather → harvestsEl NiñoIndia's wheat harvestTested on past data

Prices → householdsPrices outrunning wagesConsumer spending slowsTested on past data

Households → jobsConsumer spending slowsJob lossesTested on past data

Energy → pricesCrude oilPetrol and diesel pricesTested on past data

Farms → shopping billFarm corn pricesFood pricesTested on past data

Markets → borrowersLong-term government bond yieldsMortgage ratesTested on past data

Housing → creditFalling house pricesMortgage arrearsTested on past data

Credit → banksMortgage arrearsBank write-offsTested on past data

Policy → householdsUS student-loan payment pauseHousehold debtTested on past data

"Tested on past data" means it held in the history we checked, before we published it. It isn't a forecast: whether it holds again is what our dated calls are for.

In the lab

What we're testing, including what gets it wrong

Every call is published. Every miss stays on the record.

Can a country keep paying for imports from its own reserves?Testing now: dated calls, first scored in 2028
Does El Niño push up global palm oil and cocoa prices?Passed our tests, under review
Do credit-card arrears rise when jobless benefits run out?Passed our tests, under review
Does unemployment slow wage growth within a year?Leaning yes, not proven
Does rising unemployment lead to lower consumer spending in the months that follow?Didn't hold: spending turns first
Do poor rice harvests drive up food prices in India?Didn't hold, three ways
Do households switch from beef to chicken when money gets tight?Didn't hold once prices are accounted for
Does El Niño increase US corn and soybean yields?Didn't hold
Do US interest rates still respond to inflation as they once did?Didn't hold after 2006
Does the end of jobless benefits reduce national consumer spending?Real for households, too small to see nationally

Questions are fixed before we look at the answer. A "didn't hold" stays on record: knowing what doesn't work is part of the work.