Country funding risk

Can a country keep paying for its imports?

Monthly outlooks on whether countries can keep paying for imports from their own reserves. Built for treasury and trade-credit teams, and emerging-market investors.

57 countries this month · next update early November · first results scored from January 2028

Most at risk this month

October 2026 outlooks

Chance a country’s own reserves fall below one month of imports by October 2027, if recent trends continue

High riskMaldives92%

High riskKyrgyzstan80%

ElevatedZimbabwe26%

ElevatedUzbekistan16%

Next on the watch list: Türkiye, Ghana. Every other country is near zero. Outlooks are conditional and research, not advice.

The record

Fixed in advance. Scored in public.

Our first published calls test a simple question: can a country continue to pay for its imports using its own reserves? We’ll add other types of calls as they pass their own tests. Every call is recorded in advance and stays unchanged. Every result will be published, whether right or wrong.

How we score our calls

Judged against official data. Each call is assessed after its deadline, once the relevant data have had time to arrive. Rules for missing data and later revisions are set before the first call.
Probabilities must prove themselves. Calls assigned higher probabilities should come true more often than calls assigned lower probabilities.
Compared with simple alternatives. We test our calls against two benchmarks: assuming conditions stay unchanged, and using the share of countries already below the threshold. Our calls must outperform both over at least a year of results to demonstrate added value.
Every result stays visible. We publish the full record, including failures. Until enough calls have been scored, we make no claims about accuracy.

Calls made in October 2026

57 countries · 0 scored

The question each call answers: will the country's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports within 12 months, if recent trends continue?

250% or more

210% to 50%

21% to 10%

51Under 1%

Where

50%+10–50%1–10%Under 1%No call

Highest chances

Under 1%: 51 countries, including Albania, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Belarus…

When it's scored

All 57 calls, in full

Maldives92%Maldives' own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Kyrgyzstan80%Kyrgyzstan's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Zimbabwe26%Zimbabwe's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Uzbekistan16%Uzbekistan's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Türkiye4%Türkiye's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Ghana1%Ghana's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Albania<1%Albania's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Algeria<1%Algeria's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Angola<1%Angola's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Argentina<1%Argentina's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Azerbaijan<1%Azerbaijan's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Belarus<1%Belarus' own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Belize<1%Belize's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Brazil<1%Brazil's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Cape Verde<1%Cape Verde's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Chile<1%Chile's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Comoros<1%Comoros' own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Czech Republic<1%Czech Republic's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Denmark<1%Denmark's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Dominican Republic<1%Dominican Republic's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Ecuador<1%Ecuador's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Egypt<1%Egypt's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
El Salvador<1%El Salvador's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Georgia<1%Georgia's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Haiti<1%Haiti's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Hungary<1%Hungary's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
India<1%India's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Indonesia<1%Indonesia's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Jordan<1%Jordan's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Kazakhstan<1%Kazakhstan's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Kenya<1%Kenya's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Lao People's Democratic Republic<1%Lao People's Democratic Republic's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Libya<1%Libya's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Malaysia<1%Malaysia's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Mexico<1%Mexico's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Moldova, Republic of<1%Moldova, Republic of's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
New Zealand<1%New Zealand's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Nigeria<1%Nigeria's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Norway<1%Norway's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Pakistan<1%Pakistan's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
People's Republic of China<1%People's Republic of China's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Philippines<1%Philippines' own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Poland<1%Poland's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Romania<1%Romania's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Saint Kitts and Nevis<1%Saint Kitts and Nevis' own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines<1%Saint Vincent and the Grenadines' own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Samoa<1%Samoa's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Saudi Arabia<1%Saudi Arabia's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
South Africa<1%South Africa's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
South Korea<1%South Korea's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Suriname<1%Suriname's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Sweden<1%Sweden's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Thailand<1%Thailand's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
The Republic of North Macedonia<1%The Republic of North Macedonia's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Tonga<1%Tonga's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Ukraine<1%Ukraine's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen
Uruguay<1%Uruguay's own foreign exchange reserves fall below one month of goods imports by the end of October 2027, if the recent pace holdsOpen

Check we haven't changed anything

Download this month's calls as a file and compute its SHA-256 fingerprint, for example with shasum -a 256 intelopus-2026-10-calls.json. It should match the one below. If even one character had changed, it wouldn't. Save a copy today if you want to hold us to it.

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These calls are conditional ("if recent trends continue") and concern a country's own reserves measured against what it spends on imports of goods. They're research, not advice, and not a prediction of what governments or lenders will do.