Could grocery bills rise?
Corn prices have risen in the latest month. If the increase feeds through to food costs, shoppers could pay more.
Leaning upTested on past data
Macro intelligence · in beta · updated daily
Economic signals.
Real-world consequences.
See what’s changing. Understand what comes next.
Ask about prices, supply, jobs and borrowing costs. Each answer shows the likely direction, why, and whether we've tested it.
Could energy costs rise for businesses and households?
Crude oil prices have climbed for two months. Higher oil prices can feed through to fuel costs and put pressure on businesses and consumers.
Leaning upTested on past data
Which purchases can wait for lower prices?
Research underway.
Researching
What should I stock ahead of shortages?
Research underway.
Researching
Could El Niño hurt India's harvests?
El Niño has strengthened over the past nine months. The pattern can reduce India's rice and wheat harvests.
Smaller harvests likelyTested on past data
Could El Niño push up palm oil and cocoa prices?
Our analysis points to El Niño putting upward pressure on both prices. The finding is still under review.
Being tested
Where are metal prices headed over the next six months?
Research underway.
Researching
Could lithium supply changes affect battery prices?
Research underway.
Researching
Are prices starting to outpace wages?
Prices have begun rising faster than wages, so real pay is starting to shrink.
Early squeeze: watchTested on past data
Is consumer spending strong enough to support jobs?
Consumer spending is still growing after adjusting for inflation. A slowdown in spending can signal trouble for jobs.
Job risk low for nowTested on past data
Could more homeowners fall behind on mortgage payments?
House price growth has nearly stalled this year. If prices start to fall, homeowners lose equity and the risk of missed payments rises.
WatchTested on past data
What's the job outlook in housing?
Research underway.
Researching
Are long-term borrowing costs heading higher?
Ten-year US Treasury yields have risen for three months. Mortgage rates and other long-term borrowing costs often move with them.
Leaning upTested on past data
Will fuel purchase costs rise?
Crude oil prices have climbed for two months. Petrol and diesel prices usually follow crude, which affects fleet and delivery budgets.
Leaning upTested on past data
Will short-term rates fall?
Research underway.
Researching
How exposed are my imports to currency swings?
Research underway.
Researching
Outlooks are conditional and based on official data. They're information, not advice. Updated 24 October 2026.
Housing watch
Where building is under pressure
States are compared with each other. Mortgage rates move every state together; this shows where house prices have pulled furthest from what people earn.
Where is home building likely to slow most?
House prices have run furthest ahead of incomes in Rhode Island, Michigan, Vermont, Connecticut and Maine. In the past, states like these built fewer new homes than the rest over the following year.
Least stretched: Texas, the District of Columbia, Utah, Colorado and Nevada.
Slower building likelyTested on past data
139 countries, watched every day
Updated 24 October 2026
Observed daily (139 countries)
Series moving unusually today: 1, 2, 3 or more (40 countries)
Not yet observed
"Moving unusually" means unusual for that series' own history, up or down, good news or bad. It's an observation, not a forecast. Small islands are too small to show at this scale.
Our record
Every answer is checkable
14connections tested on decades of official dataSee the research →
57dated calls, fixed in advance and scored in public from January 2028See the calls →
10questions in the lab, including the ones that didn't holdSee what didn't hold →
Why the first scores come in January 2028: each call looks 12 months ahead, and official reserve figures arrive a few months after that, so October 2026's calls can first be checked in January 2028. Until then, you can check us now: every month's calls are fixed with a fingerprint you can verify today, new calls are added each month, and every new test we run is published on the research page, including the ones that fail.
Moving today
What the data show today
Updated 24 October 2026- Japanforeign exchange reservesUnusual fall
- South KoreaexportsUnusual rise
- MalaysiaexportsUnusual rise
- Ukrainebank lendingUnusual rise
- Georgiaforeign exchange reservesUnusual rise
- Fijiconsumer pricesUnusual rise
A selection of today's unusual moves, up or down, good news or bad: observations, not forecasts. Sources: IMF, World Bank, Eurostat, national publishers.
Approach
How we work
For professionals who make decisions on the economy: retailers, market and commodity analysts, economists, and treasury and procurement teams.
Observe
Every day we collect economic data from official publishers: the IMF, the World Bank, Eurostat, central banks and national statistics offices. Each value keeps the date we first saw it.
Understand
We study how a move in one place can show up in prices and markets far away, such as El Niño in food prices or an oil shock in a currency.
Test
We test ideas before we trust them, under rules fixed in advance. Most don't survive. When one fails, we say so and move on.
Record
Each call goes into a ledger with its date and can't be changed afterwards. When a call's time is up, it is scored, and the score is published, good or bad.
An example
One chain, traced and tested
When prices rise faster than wages, households can afford less, and what happens to spending soon reaches jobs. We tested each step of this chain on decades of official data before publishing it.
"Tested on past data" means it held in the history we checked. It isn't a forecast: whether it holds again is what our dated calls are for.
Principles
What we won't do
We'd rather earn trust slowly than claim it early.
- No accuracy claims until our calls have been scored, in public.
- No investment advice. We publish research and observations.
- No data we may not share. Every number comes from an official publisher and says where it's from.
- No hindsight. Rules are fixed before results, and calls are never edited after they're made. Every call is published with a fingerprint you can check.
What we track today
A focused start, growing with the evidence
We've begun with a focused set of economic indicators, commodity prices and climate signals across 139 countries. As our research proves out new connections, we'll extend into new areas, adding each one only once it has held up under testing.
Questions
Frequently asked
What is IntelOpus?
Independent macro intelligence on the world economy, in beta. We follow official data for 139 countries and world markets every day to see what's moving and where it can lead, and we test our ideas under rules we fix in advance.
Where does the data come from?
Only from official publishers: the IMF, the World Bank, Eurostat, central banks and national statistics offices. Every figure is credited to its source. Publishers revise their data and some release late; we show the date of what we have.
Do you make forecasts?
We make dated calls and publish every one on our calls page, new ones each month. Each says what it depends on ("if recent trends continue") and when it will be scored. Until calls have been scored, we make no claim about how accurate they are.
What does "Tested on past data" mean?
That a connection has been checked against history and held up, for example that El Niño years have shrunk India's rice harvest. It's different from a call about the future, which is scored only when its time comes.
Who is IntelOpus for?
Professionals who make decisions on the economy: retailers planning stock and prices, market and commodity analysts, economists following jobs and spending, and treasury and procurement teams managing borrowing and supply costs.
What does "moving unusually" mean?
A series is moving in a way that's unusual for its own history. It can be good news or bad, and it's an observation, not a prediction.
Is this investment advice?
No. IntelOpus publishes research and observations. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.
When do you launch?
When our methods are ready and some calls have been scored. Leave your email below and we'll send one message when that happens.
Launch
Be the first to know when we open
We're building country pages and a public scorecard of every call we make. Leave your email and we'll send one message when it's ready. No newsletter, no sharing your address. You can ask us to delete it at any time.